Deployment Rollout Estimate of Electric Vehicles 2011-2015

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The purpose of this study is not to forecast sales of electric vehicles; rather, this study‘s aim is to estimate electric vehicle deployment by state. In order to create these estimates, CAR examined forecasts of total electric vehicle sales in the U.S. to generate a reasonable approximation of what electric vehicle sales might look like for the period 2012 to 2015. The national estimates used in this paper do not constitute a CAR forecast and only reflect projections that were available at the time of this study. In the study, Table 6 denotes the percentages used by CAR to divide national electric vehicle sales among states. With the state percentages, one could select any forecast and generate state-by-state results for that forecast.

In recent years, numerous announcements have been made by motor vehicle companies—big and small—regarding plans to produce electric-powered or electric-assisted vehicles. These include battery electric (BEV), extended range, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles. Many businesses, organizations, communities and states are contemplating what level of support they would like to provide toward the deployment of these vehicles on their roads. This support could take many forms, including installation of recharging infrastructure, creation of monetary purchase incentives, provision of priority parking spaces, access to carpool lanes, purchases of these vehicles, and many other options. In determining whether or not to offer many of these incentives, stakeholders need an idea of how many drivers will be utilizing potential programs. For instance, at the state level, it may be important to know the likely deployment plan of these vehicles across the 50 states, and how such state and local incentives could play a role in determining the timing and quantity of distribution in each state. This information could help policy experts decide how to design incentives, which incentive programs to enact, and how much funding to budget toward particular initiatives.

The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) and its Automotive Communities Partnership (ACP) have undertaken this study to estimate the total number of vehicles projected to be produced each year and the likely deployment in the first few years of production. In addition, using national data on state market shares of hybrid vehicles as a proxy for likely electric vehicle demand, a reasonable estimation for the expected geographic distribution patterns of electric vehicles by state was created.