Powertrain Archives - Center for Automotive Research https://www.cargroup.org/publication-category/powertrain/ An independent nonprofit research organization Fri, 03 Dec 2021 00:22:50 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.2 https://www.cargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/cropped-Secondary-Full-Color-32x32.png Powertrain Archives - Center for Automotive Research https://www.cargroup.org/publication-category/powertrain/ 32 32 The Great Divide: What Automotive Consumers are Buying vs. Auto & Supplier Investments in Future Technologies, Products & Business Models https://www.cargroup.org/publication/great-divide-automotive-consumers-buying-vs-auto-supplier-investments-future-technologies-products-business-models/ Thu, 22 Feb 2018 15:09:21 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/?post_type=publication&p=6055 The U.S. automotive industry is in the midst of a critical period. U.S. light vehicle sales are plateauing at a very high level and include a rich mix of pickup […]

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The U.S. automotive industry is in the midst of a critical period. U.S. light vehicle sales are plateauing at a very high level and include a rich mix of pickup trucks, SUVs, and CUVs that are producing record profits. Despite all the new truck, SUV, and CUV launches at last month’s NAIAS, the companies’ presentations focused on the future of connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technologies, new mobility service models, and advanced powertrain solutions. Automakers are making big bets and hope they will pay off. Ford Chairman Bill Ford summed up the divide when he announced his company’s $11 billion investment in EVs in January 2018, “…we’re all in now. The only question is will the customers be there with us, and we think they will.”

This research addresses the U.S. segment mix, the impact of CAV on personal vehicle ownership, the tension between consumer demand and regulatory mandates on EVs, and the implication for the nation’s engineering and skilled talent development institutions and the overall technological leadership of the United States.

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Technology Roadmaps: Intelligent Mobility Technology; Materials and Manufacturing Processes; and Light Duty Vehicle Propulsion https://www.cargroup.org/publication/technology-roadmaps-intelligent-mobility-technology-materials-and-manufacturing-processes-and-light-duty-vehicle-propulsion/ Mon, 19 Jun 2017 06:30:15 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/?post_type=publication&p=4512 Major technological advances to both products and manufacturing processes are accelerating innovation throughout the automotive industry. To capture the scope of these technologies, CAR has developed a technology roadmap for […]

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Major technological advances to both products and manufacturing processes are accelerating innovation throughout the automotive industry. To capture the scope of these technologies, CAR has developed a technology roadmap for the automotive sector to provide a broad understanding of technology trends throughout the industry from current year to beyond 2030.
CAR identified and reviewed over a hundred existing roadmaps published by consulting firms, independent think tanks, trade journals, and CAR’s own research. CAR also conducted literature searches and reviewed announcements at key industry events to identify any emerging technology trends not covered in existing roadmaps. Based on the information gathered, CAR synthesized the research and existing roadmaps into three groups: Intelligent Mobility Technology; Materials and Manufacturing Processes; and Light Duty Vehicle Propulsion. Once these synthesized technology roadmaps were developed, CAR convened a roundtable of 25 experts from each of the technology groups to validate the findings.
This whitepaper synthesizes the results of this technology roadmap project, adding further interpretation of the challenges and concerns related to the projected technology and manufacturing trends. The paper is organized into three distinct categories:

  • Intelligent Mobility Technology
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Light Duty Vehicle Propulsion

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An Assessment of Powertrain Technology Costs Associated with Meeting CAFE and GHG Standards https://www.cargroup.org/publication/an-assessment-of-powertrain-technology-costs-associated-with-meeting-cafe-and-ghg-standards-2/ Thu, 01 Sep 2016 04:00:00 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/publication/an-assessment-of-powertrain-technology-costs-associated-with-meeting-cafe-and-ghg-standards-2/ This report aggregates powertrain technology cost and efficiency data from nine global vehicle manufacturers. The goal was to assess the cost and effectiveness of powertrain technologies that may be used to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) and fuel economy standards.

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CAR gathered data and conducted surveys of auto manufacturers to assess the cost and effectiveness of powertrain technologies that may be used to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) and fuel economy standards. This study is intended to offer critical insight and data for all stakeholders; and for consideration as regulators and policymakers deliberate the Midterm Evaluation (MTE). This report aggregates powertrain technology cost and efficiency data from nine global vehicle manufacturers. Survey results indicate differences exist between manufacturers and regulators expectations with regard to many advanced powertrain technologies.

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Meeting U.S. Passenger Vehicle Emissions Standards: Greenhouse Gas Credits Balance https://www.cargroup.org/publication/meeting-u-s-passenger-vehicle-emissions-standards-greenhouse-gas-credits-balance/ Sun, 01 Nov 2015 04:00:00 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/publication/meeting-u-s-passenger-vehicle-emissions-standards-greenhouse-gas-credits-balance/ The automotive industry is charged with reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of its fleet to an estimated average of 163 gCO2 per mile (equivalent to 54.5 MPG) by the year […]

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The automotive industry is charged with reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of its fleet to an estimated average of 163 gCO2 per mile (equivalent to 54.5 MPG) by the year 2025.1 From now through the year 2025, the standards for GHG emissions in the United States will become more stringent at a rate of approximately 4 to 5 percent. As U.S. standards become more stringent, the automakers must continue to reduce their fleet’s GHG emissions to meet or exceed the standard, or utilize credits they have accrued in previous years. These credits may be earned by over-complying with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) GHG target for a given Model Year, implementing air conditioning and off-cycle technologies that improve fuel efficiency, selling of advanced powertrain vehicles such as electric vehicles (EVs), using alternative fuels, or any combination of these examples.2 Manufacturers may also purchase credits from other vehicle manufacturers if they believe additional credits are necessary for the future or if they carry a deficit. Manufacturers are under no obligation to buy or sell credits from others and the value of these is primarily determined by the market. However, if a vehicle manufacturer is in a deficit after utilizing all accrued credits it will have to offset those deficits within three years or face monetary penalties and regulators may require the automaker to cease sales of non-complying vehicles in the United States. There is a key question related to these regulations: Can the vehicle manufacturers keep pace with the regulations, or will they burn through the credits they currently have?

This report reviews the GHG credit progress made thus far in the U.S. industry and how long those credits would last if no additional technology advancements were made to the fleet. Without significant advances in fleet fuel efficiency, none of the leading automotive manufacturers in the U.S. market will meet the future standards. After including all credits earned from MY 2009 through MY 2013 and carrying over the performance of the MY 2014 fleet against the standards from MY 2015 through MY 2025, all manufacturers would run out of credits by the year MY 2021 and some would run out of credits as early as MY 2017. The industry as a whole would have a cumulative deficit of credits by MY 2018 at which point there would not be enough credits to cover all deficiencies within the industry.

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Crucial Greenhouse Gas and Corporate Average Fuel Economy(CAFE) Regulation Differences in the United States https://www.cargroup.org/publication/crucial-greenhouse-gas-and-corporate-average-fuel-economycafe-regulation-differences-in-the-united-states/ Sat, 01 Aug 2015 04:00:00 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/publication/crucial-greenhouse-gas-and-corporate-average-fuel-economycafe-regulation-differences-in-the-united-states/ An important transition within the automotive industry is underway as fuel economy and CO2 emissions regulations quickly accelerate through the year 2025. The industry will be required by regulation to […]

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An important transition within the automotive industry is underway as fuel economy and CO2 emissions regulations quickly accelerate through the year 2025. The industry will be required by regulation to increase fuel efficiency of the US fleet from 27.5 miles per gallon (MPG) for passenger cars and 23.4 MPG for light duty trucks in 2010 to an estimated 54.5 MPG for all vehicles in model year 2025. The 54.5 MPG number, widely used by the administration, regulators, and media, is an estimate of what the industry must meet in 2025. In reality, it is a representation of a complex set of measurements. The actual fuel economy target required will depend on a variety of factors and will even differ from manufacturer to manufacturer.

Federal regulatory standards for fuel economy and emissions in the United States are administered by two agencies: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA). While the standards are to a certain extent harmonized, they are not necessarily in complete alignment. This divergence is due to the differing missions of each agency—the EPA focusing on emissions, and NHTSA on fuel economy. Powertrain technology and alternative fuels have a direct impact on fuel economy and emissions—and the overall compliance strategy for a manufacturer. Certain fuels are more likely to reduce greenhouse and smog-forming emissions as well as petroleum use.

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A Primer to Fuel Economy and Emissions Standards https://www.cargroup.org/publication/a-primer-to-fuel-economy-and-emissions-standards/ Sat, 01 Aug 2015 04:00:00 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/publication/a-primer-to-fuel-economy-and-emissions-standards/ An important transition within the automotive industry is underway as fuel economy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions regulations quickly accelerate through the year 2025. The industry will be required by […]

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An important transition within the automotive industry is underway as fuel economy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions regulations quickly accelerate through the year 2025. The industry will be required by regulation to increase fuel efficiency of the U.S. fleet from 27.5 miles per gallon (MPG) for passenger cars and 23.4 MPG for light duty trucks in 2010 to an estimated 54.5 MPG for all vehicles in model year(MY) 2025. 54.5 MPG, a number used by the administration, regulators and frequently reported by media, is an estimate of what the industry must meet in 2025. In reality, it is a representation of a complex set of measurements. The actual fuel economy target required will depend on a variety of factors and will even differ from manufacturer to manufacturer.

Among the factors that determine the official standard for a vehicle manufacturer are: the footprint of a vehicle, the distribution of truck and passenger car sales, and the market share of credit or incentive enabling technology. The following document will describe some of these factors and identify implications as the industry moves forward.

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Powertrain Forecast and Analysis: What is Coming and What Are the Implications for the Specialty Equipment and Performance Aftermarket Industry https://www.cargroup.org/publication/powertrain-forecast-and-analysis-what-is-coming-and-what-are-the-implications-for-the-specialty-equipment-and-performance-aftermarket-industry/ Sat, 01 Aug 2009 04:00:00 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/publication/powertrain-forecast-and-analysis-what-is-coming-and-what-are-the-implications-for-the-specialty-equipment-and-performance-aftermarket-industry/ The Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA) and the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) have engaged in a multi-phased project to create vehicle technology planning and business strategy guideposts for SEMA members. The first Phase I report in the program—The Specialty Equipment Company of the Future: Guideposts for Technology Forecasting and Strategic Planning—was released in the third quarter of 2008. This, the Phase II second report—Powertrain Forecast and Analysis: What is Coming and What are the Implications for the Specialty Equipment and Performance Aftermarket Industry—addresses the rapidly changing powertrain paradigm in the U.S. market

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The Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA) and the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) have engaged in a multi-phased project to create vehicle technology planning and business strategy guideposts for SEMA members. The first Phase I report in the program—The Specialty Equipment Company of the Future: Guideposts for Technology Forecasting and Strategic Planning—was released in the third quarter of 2008. This, the Phase II second report—Powertrain Forecast and Analysis: What is Coming and What are the Implications for the Specialty Equipment and Performance Aftermarket Industry—addresses the rapidly changing powertrain paradigm in the U.S. market.

The Phase I report stated “the automotive industry—both original equipment and aftermarket—is experiencing rapid and dramatic structural changes and is currently in a state of significant upheaval.” It further stated, “Due to this upheaval, many industry participants are experiencing what can best be described as tactical tunnel vision. These companies, faced by severe near-term market vehicle technology and product development challenges and uncertainties, have been actively addressing tactical operational concerns, often at the expense of strategic long-term planning. While this is understandable—even necessary—it does present potential risk and opportunity costs for these companies.” The authors believe that statement to be even more relevant today.

The SEMA–CAR industry research project is part of SEMA’s Vehicle Technology strategy and is intended to assist SEMA member companies by investigating strategic concerns, challenges and opportunities and provide the most up-to-date information that is relevant and important to helping members sustain and grow their businesses.. The project is specifically designed to illustrate and communicate these coming challenges and create a forum for discussion (both within companies and between stakeholders) as well as provide a framework for effective scenario planning and bridging strategic thinking with operational business planning.. Individual companies will most certainly respond differently to these strategic challenges and scenarios. That creativity and innovation is the essence of SEMA members’ entrepreneurial spirit and drive. The goal established by the CAR-SEMA project is to look ahead at what is coming down the road and provide advance notice of industry and vehicle changes in order to help member companies understand and prepare for those strategic challenges and opportunities.

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Advanced Power Technology Alliance Advanced Internal Combustion Engine Survey (Light Duty Vehicle Technology) https://www.cargroup.org/publication/advanced-power-technology-alliance-advanced-internal-combustion-engine-survey-light-duty-vehicle-technology/ Thu, 01 Apr 2004 05:00:00 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/publication/advanced-power-technology-alliance-advanced-internal-combustion-engine-survey-light-duty-vehicle-technology/ The internal combustion engine (ICE) has been the predominant powerplant in the automobile for nearly a century.

This study was prepared for the Advanced Power Technology Alliance (APTA) and sponsored by the Michigan Economic Development Corporation and the Dow Foundation.

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The internal combustion engine (ICE) has been the predominant powerplant in the automobile for nearly a century. Recent developments in alternatives to the ICE—especially gasoline/electric hybrid fuel cell power—have garnered significant media and public policy attention in recent years. However, the ICE remains a difficult and moving target. Although a century of development has lead to a highly refined technology, there is still some opportunity for further fuel efficiency gains. The Advanced Internal Combustion Survey addresses the opportunity and associated costs for the future development of the spark-ignited (gasoline) and compressionignited (diesel) internal combustion engines.

This study was prepared for the Advanced Power Technology Alliance (APTA) and sponsored by the Michigan Economic Development Corporation and the Dow Foundation.

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The Advanced Power Technology Dilemma: from Hydrocarbons to Hydrogen https://www.cargroup.org/publication/the-advanced-power-technology-dilemma-from-hydrocarbons-to-hydrogen/ Mon, 01 Mar 2004 05:00:00 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/publication/the-advanced-power-technology-dilemma-from-hydrocarbons-to-hydrogen/ Imagine that you’re an average consumer with limited knowledge of automotive technology, and you’re concerned about reports of global warming and America’s over dependence on foreign oil. You've probably read stories that the car manufacturers could use different technologies to improve fuel economy by producing hybrid-electric vehicles or making fuel cell powered cars that use hydrogen, not petroleum, and emit only water from their tailpipes. What's your reaction?

This study was prepared by the Center for Automotive Research with generous support fromt the Robert Bosch Corporation.

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Imagine that you’re an average consumer with limited knowledge of automotive technology, and you’re concerned about reports of global warming and America’s over dependence on foreign oil. You’ve probably read stories that the car manufacturers could use different technologies to improve fuel economy by producing hybrid-electric vehicles or making fuel cell powered cars that use hydrogen, not petroleum, and emit only water from their tailpipes. What’s your reaction?

You’d probably be very excited that there are ways to make cars that will “save the planet” or give the United States energy independence. As you read farther down in these stories, however, you notice that numerous improvements are needed in terms of the cost and performance of these vehicles, especially with the fuel cell powered vehicles. You’re left with many doubts and perhaps distrust of what “Detroit” or “big oil” is telling you about the challenges they face to comply with the ever increasing environmental and fuel mileage standards.

This study was prepared by the Center for Automotive Research with generous support fromt the Robert Bosch Corporation.

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Advanced Power Technology Survey https://www.cargroup.org/publication/advanced-power-technology-survey/ Fri, 01 Nov 2002 05:00:00 +0000 http://www.cargroup.org/publication/advanced-power-technology-survey/ The Advanced Power Technology survey is based on the Delphi forecasting process and is highly dependent upon the quality of the small ‘expert’ panel.

A Report for the Advanced Power Technology Alliance

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The Advanced Power Technology survey is based on the Delphi forecasting process and is highly dependent upon the quality of the small ‘expert’ panel. Great care was taken to identify experts in important areas of advanced technology. These experts were then asked to respond to a questionnaire pertaining to advanced power technologies. The survey had 25 carefully selected respondents and each question had a response count of approximately 18-22. The Panel includes academics, automotive manufacturers and suppliers, fuel cell developers, and energy representatives. While these numbers are low for a traditional survey, work done by the Rand Corporation for the U.S. Air Force in the late 1960s indicates that a small panel of experts with an interactive review of results can be a highly effective method of forecasting. A Report for the Advanced Power Technology Alliance

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