Forecasts Archives - Center for Automotive Research

Trade Briefing: U.S. Consumer & Economic Impacts of U.S. Automotive Trade Policies

swhitehouse@cargroup.org — Fri, 15 Feb 2019 18:00:12 +0000

U.S. trade policy changes are projected to raise consumer prices for new and used vehicles and lower U.S. light vehicle sales, employment, and economic output. The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) estimates that the cumulative effect of current and potential U.S. trade actions on automobiles and auto parts could cause new car prices to rise by USD 2,750 on average. CAR estimates that the price of even U.S.-built vehicles could increase as much as USD 1,900 due to the current share of imported parts content, and imported vehicle prices could rise by as much as USD 3,700. The vast majority of the estimated price impacts are attributable to the potential auto and parts tariffs that the Administration is considering imposing under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended.

CAR’s analysis assumes that Canada, Mexico, and South Korea are exempt from potential Section 232 auto and based on the Korea-United States free trade agreement (KORUS) and exemptions from Section 232 auto and parts tariffs for Canada and Mexico that were agreed to in side letters to the USMCA that was signed in November 2018.

Rather than help the U.S. automotive and parts industries, the cumulative effect of the Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs, Section 301 China tariffs, USMCA, and the potential 25 percent Section 232 tariff on imported autos and auto parts could lead to a 1.3 million drop in U.S. light vehicle sales, 366,900 fewer U.S. jobs, and $30.4 billion lower U.S. economic output (Gross Domestic Product). U.S. new automobile dealerships could lose as many as 77,000 jobs and $43.6 billion in revenue.

Used vehicle prices will also rise due to heightened demand and constricted supply, and higher automotive parts prices will drive up the price of vehicle maintenance and repair, so even holding on to an existing vehicle will become more expensive.

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Trade Briefing: Consumer Impact of Potential U.S. Section 232 Tariffs & Quotas on Imported Automobiles & Automotive Parts

swhitehouse@cargroup.org — Tue, 24 Jul 2018 12:43:21 +0000

The U.S. Department of Commerce is currently investigating whether U.S. automobiles and automotive parts constitute a national security threat under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended. The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) estimates that consumers will see the price of all new vehicles rise by $455 to $6,875 depending on the level of tariff or quota, where the vehicle was assembled, and whether the policy provides exemptions for automotive trade with Canada and Mexico. Used vehicle prices will also rise due to heightened demand and constricted supply, and higher automotive parts prices will drive up the price of vehicle maintenance and repair, so even holding on to an existing vehicle will become more expensive.

U.S. automotive and automotive parts manufacturers would not benefit from tariff or quota protection since all vehicles produced in the United States rely on imported content and a substantial share of U.S.-produced automotive parts and components are exported for assembly in vehicles built in other countries. CAR estimates that automotive demand will fall by between 493,600 to 2 million vehicles as a result of the implementation of tariffs or quotas. Declining demand is associated with employment losses ranging from over 82,000 to nearly 715,000 jobs and a $6.4 billion to $62.2 billion hit to U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

This briefing covers the economic, trade, employment, output, and price impacts of the potential Section 232 tariffs or quotas at a range of levels and levied against all trading partners or all non-NAFTA trading partners.

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The Great Divide: What Automotive Consumers are Buying vs. Auto & Supplier Investments in Future Technologies, Products & Business Models

swhitehouse@cargroup.org — Thu, 22 Feb 2018 15:09:21 +0000

The U.S. automotive industry is in the midst of a critical period. U.S. light vehicle sales are plateauing at a very high level and include a rich mix of pickup trucks, SUVs, and CUVs that are producing record profits. Despite all the new truck, SUV, and CUV launches at last month’s NAIAS, the companies’ presentations focused on the future of connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) technologies, new mobility service models, and advanced powertrain solutions. Automakers are making big bets and hope they will pay off. Ford Chairman Bill Ford summed up the divide when he announced his company’s $11 billion investment in EVs in January 2018, “…we’re all in now. The only question is will the customers be there with us, and we think they will.”

This research addresses the U.S. segment mix, the impact of CAV on personal vehicle ownership, the tension between consumer demand and regulatory mandates on EVs, and the implication for the nation’s engineering and skilled talent development institutions and the overall technological leadership of the United States.

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Technology Roadmaps: Intelligent Mobility Technology; Materials and Manufacturing Processes; and Light Duty Vehicle Propulsion

swhitehouse@cargroup.org — Mon, 19 Jun 2017 06:30:15 +0000

Major technological advances to both products and manufacturing processes are accelerating innovation throughout the automotive industry. To capture the scope of these technologies, CAR has developed a technology roadmap for the automotive sector to provide a broad understanding of technology trends throughout the industry from current year to beyond 2030.
CAR identified and reviewed over a hundred existing roadmaps published by consulting firms, independent think tanks, trade journals, and CAR’s own research. CAR also conducted literature searches and reviewed announcements at key industry events to identify any emerging technology trends not covered in existing roadmaps. Based on the information gathered, CAR synthesized the research and existing roadmaps into three groups: Intelligent Mobility Technology; Materials and Manufacturing Processes; and Light Duty Vehicle Propulsion. Once these synthesized technology roadmaps were developed, CAR convened a roundtable of 25 experts from each of the technology groups to validate the findings.
This whitepaper synthesizes the results of this technology roadmap project, adding further interpretation of the challenges and concerns related to the projected technology and manufacturing trends. The paper is organized into three distinct categories:

Intelligent Mobility Technology
Materials and Manufacturing Processes
Light Duty Vehicle Propulsion

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